Jeffrey Simpson did an online chat at GlobeandMail.com just now, and at one point he gives his view of the odds for the Liberal leadership race:
Rae 4:1, Dion 6:1, Iggy 10:1, Kennedy 50:1
Very interesting!
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Liberal Leadership Odds...
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4 comments:
Jeffrey Simpson is an idiot. I wish he would put his money where his mouth is.
I would place a $1 000 000 000 bet on Iggy, Rae, Dion and Kennedy. Given Simpsons odds the only way I would lose any money is none of the four won. If Iggy wins I come out even. If Rae, Dion, or Kennedy win I will be filthy rich. How do I contact him to arrange such a bet?
Infact it's possible to bet such that you win money even if Iggy wins and you bet on all four candidates.
Yeah, I think you kinda missed the point there anon.
I guess the point was that if you bet on Liberals you win automatically?
:)
My point is, I think the point of the excercise was to display Simpson's sense of each candidate's chance of winning, as opposed to setting up accurate odds that would be used in an actual betting situation.
Obviously, with four candidates, and the worst odds given by Simpson (from the better's perspective) being 4 to 1, if you placed the same bet on each candidate, your worst case scenario would be breaking even (though, you get that if RAE wins, not Ignatieff).
If I bet a dollar on each candidate, and Rae wins, I lose $3, and win $3 so I'm even. If Dion wins I lose $3 and win $5 so I'm up by $2. If Kennedy wins, I lose $3 and win $49, etc... It's true that it's a "no lose" scenario, but I think pointing that out misses the point.
Simpson isn't setting up an OTB, he's just ranking the candidates and assessing his view of their shot.
I thought it was interesting, and that his odds make sense given the situation, but others will disagree!
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