Sunday, June 01, 2008

Clinton really, really, REALLY can't win...

OK, time to play with delegate numbers again!

Thanks to CNN's handy dandy delegate counter, it's once again time to play with the numbers and see what Hillary Clinton needs to do to win the Democratic nomination.

As of yesterday's DNC ruling, the new threshold for the win is 2118 delegates. How can Clinton still win? Well there are several scenarios (all equally fantastic and impossible mind you, but there are several). Here's my personal favourite.

Maybe Senator Clinton will win 100% of the vote in the three remaining primaries. 100% of the vote in Puerto Rico, 100% of the vote in Montana, and 100% of the vote in South Dakota.

Now, that alone is not enough for Senator Clinton to win. She's well past the point where something as mundane as winning all the remaining votes can get her the nomination. No, she'll still need to rely on the superdelegates even if not a single eligible voter votes for Obama in the next three contests.

The good news for Senator Clinton is that if Obama doesn't receive a single vote between now and next Tuesday, she'll only need to attract 75% of the remaining super delegates to (barely) win the nomination.

So, all she needs to do is win 100% of the primary votes remaining and the support of 75% of the remaining super delegates.

Good luck with that Senator.

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

As you stated, there are a few possibilities; tough, but not entirely impossible. The one that would be most likely to end up how she gets the nomination is;

Puerto Rico,(55),Clinton 65%(36) & Obama 35%(19) Considering she is expected to win big today.

Then you have the final two primaries this tuesday;

Montana, (16),Clinton 53%(8) & Obama 47%(8) Eitherway, whichever candidate wins it'll most likely end up being 8/8 split.

South Dakota, (15), Clinton 40%(6) & Obama 60% (9) Had to give him a win.

This leaves things into the hands of the superdelegates, meaning - her argument is now a little stronger BUT she still needs to claim a massive 88% ( 182 ) supers to claim 2119, while Obama would only need around 20%... As I said, very difficult but don't count her out yet.

Lord Kitchener's Own said...

Well, sorry anon, but I'm well past counting Clinton out. I've counted Clinton out since Wisconsin.

It's over.

What's worst for Clinton is that it's not JUST that she's gonna need 88% or so of the supers, it's convincing 88% of the supers to take the nomination away from Obama. By most accounts, Obama already has the (as yet undeclared) support of enough super delegates to put him over the current threshold given the expected results running up to Tuesday as you show them. I expect that Tuesday night/Wednesday morning there will be enough superdelegate announcements made for Obama to secure the nomination next week without too much trouble. A lot of superdelegates are just waiting for the season to officially end before declaring, and I'm hearing that Obama should have more than enough supers to clinch the nomination next week.

Now, at that point, Clinton can still argue that Florida and Michigan should be counted differently, and/or that superdelegates that have committed to Obama should change their minds; but at that point she's arguing that things should be changed to take the nomination away from Obama.

By next Wednesday (Friday at the latest) I expect CNN's delegate counter to show Obama above the 2118 delegate threshold currently needed to win the nomination. Now, sure, Clinton could still technically win at that point by some combination of superdelegate switches and/or a reassessment of MI/FL, but whatever her pie in the sky argument is at that point, I question whether anyone will be listening to her anymore.

J. Ellen said...

I'm so with you at this point. Clinton was out after WI and she needed to support Obama so that the Democrats wouldn't be fighting on two fronts come November.
Actually, her will to win is frightening, if something happens around the world, she's showing us that she wouldn't back off, she'd just keep fighting, merely to prove she can win. I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't want that attitude in office.
At least Obama is talking change, he's got my vote for that and for many other reasons.
Luckily, I'm an official (LOL) Independent voter. I can say this without ruining the Dems...I won't vote for Hillary, not at all.

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